David E. Hultstrom

Let’s move on now to determining the returns we should expect on our investments.  In the following discussion, I make no claim whatsoever to knowing what will occur in the short run, and in the long run these estimates will undoubtedly be wrong, but should give us the midpoint of a range of returns we …

Following is an analogy to explain how to think about expected return and what actions might be prudent if that expected return changes. The Magic Box.  Imagine there is a magic box and at the end of each year a dollar mysteriously appears inside.  Suppose you pay $10 to acquire this box.  At the end …

A while back I was having a discussion with a colleague about the mindset of a particular person and I commented that they were essentially a “poor person with money.” In the context it made sense (they grew up poor, but had subsequently done very well), but I realized that locution would seem odd to …

I was tempted to call title this post “Alternative Alternatives” but it seemed more confusing than clever.  In previous posts I have covered traditional asset classes, an overview of alternative investments, commodities & gold, real estate, and miscellaneous other alternatives.  In this post I will talk about investment opportunities that are generally not even noticed …

Following is an overview of several alternative investments that didn’t warrant their own posts: Convertible Bonds.  These are bonds that are convertible into shares of stock. They are mostly traded by hedge funds using sophisticated arbitrage strategies.  We do not use these in portfolios as they aren’t different enough from stocks to make the diversification …

Directly-owned real estate is a popular alternative investment.  While there is no right answer for every situation and different people will weigh the factors differently, here are some items to keep in mind (in no particular order): People like real estate emotionally. The fact that it is tangible and substantive, gives them comfort.  The danger …

There are three types of investments in commodities, investing in the physical commodity itself, investing in a derivative instrument, and investing in natural resources stocks.  First, we have the physical asset: The expected return on the physical asset is roughly inflation, but the historical return on the spot price is actually slightly less than inflation …

In my last post I discussed the primary asset classes (stocks and bonds) and their various subdivisions.  In this post I will give an overview of some “alternative” investments.  First we should define what an alternative investment actually is.  There isn’t a precise definition, but broadly speaking it is an investment that is not one …

An asset class is a group of investments that have similar behavior and characteristics. When selecting investments it is vitally important to have estimates of three statistics for each asset class: Expected Return – the rate of return anticipated on average. Standard Deviation – the variability likely in those returns. Correlation Coefficient – the manner …

Many comparisons of vehicles with differing tax treatments are faulty because they don’t start at the beginning and go all the way to the end.  To perform a proper analysis, it is important to start with “Pat earns a dollar” and go all the way to “Pat spends the proceeds.” If the comparison starts with …

My last post mentioned at the end that many people purchase annuities for the guarantees.  I thought I would expand on that by posting here an analysis I did a few years ago of some examples of “market linked” or “equity linked” products with some sort of guarantee.  These “guarantees” are attractive propositions to those …

To make a case for annuities, advisors often compare the most expensive, tax-inefficient mutual funds to the most inexpensive variable annuities.  However, an objective analysis, will find that annuities appear to be poor choices in most (but not all) cases. To fairly compare the two (and remove compensation considerations), I used a 0.30% marginal cost …

Tax loss harvesting is the sale of securities in a taxable account that have declined in value since their purchase in order to recognize the loss for tax purposes.  Most people (including professional financial advisors) do this at the end of the year determining whether the transaction is worthwhile by comparing the immediate tax savings …

Here are a few common investment mistakes (in no particular order): Selecting investments without an overall plan. Many people have accumulated a hodge-podge of funds and individual securities without considering how they fit together.  They have a collection rather than a portfolio.  The individual investment selection (within the same asset class) is one of the …

I thought I would quantify the returns for delaying Social Security retirement benefits.  A retiree with a FRA (Full Retirement Age) of 66 could claim 75% of their benefit at age 62.  Using mortality tables (RP-2014) we can compute the return for waiting: Total Dataset Blue Collar White Collar Bottom Quartile Top Quartile M F …

There are a number of things that need to be addressed in financial planning, including, but not limited to: Insurance & risk management Employee benefits Estate planning Retirement planning Portfolio allocation Those items generally can be taken care of and forgotten about until you experience a life change of some sort (retirement or job change, …

Financial advisors disagree vehemently about (at least) three topics:  fees vs. commissions, active vs. passive management, and the subject of this article:  permanent life insurance vs. taxable investments. Assumptions & Observations First, a few general comments before I discuss the specific factors impacting this decision: While both investment and insurance vehicles may have poor performance, …

Rebalancing, according to Wikipedia, is “the action of bringing a portfolio of investments that has deviated away from one’s target asset allocation back into line.” How to do that optimally is the subject of this post. Below is a sample allocation to facilitate the following discussion of rebalancing. It should not be construed as a …

I try (I really do) not to be the grammar police, but there are three terms routinely – and improperly – used by financial professionals. I can’t sit idly by when even Warren Buffet (who I greatly respect) is getting it wrong. Now, after you read this, in at least one aspect you can be …

What spending order is optimal for a retiree who is older than 59½ having three types of accounts: a taxable account, a Roth IRA, and a traditional IRA with no basis? The default order is: Taxable (preserves tax deferral in the other accounts) IRA (no RMDs on the Roth, so this reduces future RMDs by …